Posts by "dave j"

Fed Funds rate unchanged at 0.25%. Fed twist extension (as expected) to swap $267B of Treasuries by year end to drive down the long end of the curve....ie USD up. eurusd drops 50 odd points (so far)...currently 1.2650

BoJ May Minutes release and Merchandise Trade numbers coming up 1950hrs EST...(usdjpy currently 79.01)

looks like inverse RS formed however consolidating, going into above news release and tomorrows fomc...

...usdjpy (currently 78.69) possibly forming up (inverse) RS (maybe flows going to safe havens in anticipation of this sunday)....if there is a time for BoJ to intervene, the next few days would be it...ie ride the coat tails of the rest of the CB's/Bernanke in easing, in anticipation of EZ 'blow up'....or not.

"Noda is (apparently) watching....", watching what is the question...

BoJ monthly Eco report, BoJ minutes & Shirakawa speech should keep stirring things up next week...

...G20 summit coming up too btw


glgt

Thanks AL,

...the USD does look 'ripe' for a continuation to the downside with this weekend's event and CB's apparently 'at the ready'...10000 handle will be interesting...through there, watching 9924-9873 zone for support...9800 handle last resort...

...can't bring myself to long this pair. would like to see a relatively quick (ie inside a month) pop to 1.3000 though to add to shorts...monthly perspective, looking for 1.12-13 before we could see a protracted run back to 1.20-1.25ish area...technically/chartastrologically speaking...

fundamentally, imho 'don't think there will be a 'fiscal/political union' in Europe. The hurdle to overcome to reach this is enormous...one basic eg...How would the Yanks' like it if the Brits' decided the US Federal Budget, the Mooseheads decided how the Sauerkraut's spent their money, Japan decided how China spent etc etc...very simplistic examples but the underlying point is the same, you need the nations to 'buy in' to essentially relinquishing their sovereignty's. 'Seems Chancellor Merkel is stuck between a 'rock and a hard place', on the one hand she wants what some of her predecessors (Hitler, Kohl) wanted, a unifed Europe (though on 'slightly' different terms and motives), however she knows full well that Germany would most likely be left holding the bag when the fiscally inept member 'states' come asking '...more sir/Plus sir/Mas sir/Mais sir/Piu sir?...'. The friction generated from this dynamic alone would cause extreme headaches and expense not just for the EZ but for the rest of the world also. Yes, the plan for a European Federation is relatively easy to draw up on paper along with a few phonecalls and emails between 4 old guys but, can they get (centuries old) cultural differences put aside and gain a majority acceptance' of their "plan" from the everday working people, young & old, that pay taxes and make up the countries that are in an imaginary area called the Euro Zone?? Dubious at best....so, 'long story short', expecting eur/usd to continue its downside plunge for the near future...

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/europe-looks-at-plans-for-poltical-union-and-budgetary-oversight-a-838142.html